Michael Shermer is Skeptical

After blogging about how we as consumers are more apt to complain about negative experiences than brag about positive ones, Michael Shermer tells us the opposite. But he isn’t really referring to the retail environment; he’s talks about how astrologists and psychologists make their livings: by people remembering the hits and forgetting the misses. If only Time Warner Cable was so lucky…

Michael Shermer is head of the “Skeptic’s Society” and publisher of “Skeptic Magazine.” In his episode of TED Talks he dissects the reasons people have for believing peculiar things. His work is largely a study in science, proving and disproving all of the crazy claims and inventions in our world today.

His group is like the “Ralph Nader of bad ideas,” Shermer claims while showcasing a marijuana-seeking antenna that works 50% of the time. “We need to keep track of the misses along with the hits” in order to prove something scientifically rather than relying on chance.

The real problem is matching data to support one’s theory as Galileo found out while observing Saturn for the first time. Theories are full of cognitive bias. Without data to back them up, they are little more than a stepping stone to real answers.

It seems that areas with incomplete information or “grainy details” are often twisted and given meaning through the power of suggestion. The tendency of the cognitive mind to find faces and look for patterns is evidence of this. Furthermore, from a marketing perspective, Shermer’s theories say a lot about the power of persuasion. He basically suggests that people are seeking to be persuaded. It is easier for us to attach meaning to things we do not fully understand rather than admit that matters are beyond our comprehensive capacity.

I found it particularly interesting that the “face of the Virgin Mary” appeared on a grilled cheese sandwich. First of all, why would any religious icon choose to reveal herself on a food product? Secondly, if this was truly a sign, why didn’t any religious authorities make a claim on it? It’s pretty amazing that despite the public’s general agreement that this object was not supernatural in any way, someone managed to make $28,500 on eBay.

I guess that is the power of marketing.